| 초록 |
In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western North Pacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics of TCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TC genesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecast in 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data reveal that El Ni $ tilde{n}$ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Ni $ tilde{n}$ o to La Ni $ tilde{n}$ a in June and the La Ni $ tilde{n}$ a event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We found that these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TC development area prior to May and at tropics east of $140^{ circ}E$ during summer mostly due to low SST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event (in shifting time and La Ni $ tilde{n}$ a intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallest TC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that the ENSO episode shifting from El Ni $ tilde{n}$ o to strong La Ni $ tilde{n}$ a in summer leads to extremely low TC genesis during La Ni $ tilde{n}$ a although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs, DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula (KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above $20^{ circ}N$ and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought the most serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official track forecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km, which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasing for last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill. |
